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Poll gives Carnahan lead over Blunt, Purgason in US Senate race

with 8 comments

We, in the media, love to discuss and tear apart polls. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey gave Republican Roy Blunt a 6 percentage point lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in a head to head match-up in Missouri’s 2010 U.S. Senate race. Today we have a new poll which was sent to me by longtime Democrat Tony Wyche – and it shows Carnahan out in front slightly.

The YouGovPolimetrix survey has Carnahan with a 43 to 39 percentage point lead over Blunt among decided voters … and shows Carnahan with a 40 to 34 percentage point lead over State Senator Chuck Purgason, who is also in the contest for the GOP nomination.

I must confess … I am not familiar with the polling firm – YouGovPolimetrix – but we present the results for your consideration, just the same.

Steve Walsh

 

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Written by learfield

January 27, 2010 at 7:38 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

8 Responses

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  1. Tony is the spokesperson for Wind Capital. He’s also listed as a spokesperson for Robin’s Senate campaign, and he’s married to Sara Howard, who’s the spokesperson for Russ’s campaign. And if he’s talking about YouGovPolimetrix – it’s an online survey poll. That’s some pretty thin gruel.They have to got work on their outreach.

    24thstate

    January 28, 2010 at 10:45 pm

  2. YouGov is the Pollster that The Economist used for their ’08 polling.It took me 60 seconds to figure this out, take a look http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10085476Try actually doing some reporting. And try, for once, to actually have something resembling balance.

    mike

    January 29, 2010 at 5:52 pm

  3. Walsh never met a Democrat he couldn’t hate. “Balance,” for him, is something between G. Gordon Liddy and Pat Robertson.

    Darren

    January 29, 2010 at 8:44 pm

  4. Poll or no poll this fall is shaping up to be bad news for dems anyway!

    jeffrey

    January 29, 2010 at 10:21 pm

  5. Here’s some balance to your comment, Mike. I read a blog post citing that YouGov Polimetrix was “the worst polling outfit in 2008 according to the WSJ” Take 30 seconds to review the following post: http://www.24thstate.com/2010/01/firedup-pretends-memo-handed-out-from-tony-wyche-is-news.html ~ Sara

    Sara

    January 30, 2010 at 7:37 pm

  6. Wow Sara, you post a comment from the commenter above to defend him.They might not be a great polling firm, but at the same time, the fact that Walsh claims he hasn’t heard of them, basically saying that it isn’t a real poll, is inexcusable.

    mike

    January 30, 2010 at 10:13 pm

  7. Mike, I agree with you, clearly they are not a great polling firm. Yet, if I might add, the greater concern in this case is if YouGovPolimetrix has heard of a “margin of error”? Mysteriously the margin of error is missing from both the report http://www.polimetrix.com/news/012110.html and the corresponding WSJ op ed, written in part by Douglas Rivers, president of YouGov Polimetrix: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704541004575011134134536138.html Intentional omission, or accidental? Data analysis is obviously a field where attention to accuracy matters since researchers do not usually measure entire populations but instead draw samples from populations and measure elements in that sample. These elements are analyzed and often are projected to apply to the entire population. I’ve performed statistical analysis and the most important factors are reliability and validity. For those of you who haven’t analyzed data, or for those of you who mentally or physically reside in Rio Linda, “Reliability concerns the extent to which any measurement procedure yields the same results on repeated trials.” Validity is the “correspondence between the measure and the concept it is thought to measure.” Reliability and validity are essential in research because the purpose of research is to predict behavior and point towards a proposed solution to a problem. If the research is not reliable or valid, the research will not be repeatable, predictions based on the research will be misleading and the proposed solution will be inaccurate. Hence, the importance of attention to detail in data entry, data analysis, and data reporting/interpretation. So does someone want to tell me how three professors (writers for the WSJ op ed), one of whom is the President of the polling firm, AND the polling firm neglected to mention the margin of error? ~ Sara

    Sara

    January 31, 2010 at 2:06 am

  8. Amazingly,Ms Carnahan, without ever stating her views on any Senatorial issue,is leading Rep.Blunt.As Missouri’s own Mark Twain once wrote.”Lies,Damned Lies and Statistics”Mr Clemens must have been foretelling this particular polls results.

    Essayons

    February 6, 2010 at 9:15 pm


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